Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 20.783627 22.562569 24.481415 26.715001 29.256185 32.072470 35.450743
2025-10-19 18.162079 20.611144 23.432885 26.963653 31.320083 36.596948 43.596380
2025-10-26 16.095698 18.891322 22.280842 26.775921 32.713178 40.491315 51.825077
2025-11-02 14.513484 17.493869 21.258478 26.497563 33.835024 44.148128 60.574278
2025-11-09 13.362501 16.470988 20.536756 26.438613 35.153155 48.237690 70.992710
2025-11-16 12.386180 15.552719 19.816992 26.234410 36.161627 51.991844 81.940698
2025-11-23 11.569462 14.758586 19.162623 26.004019 37.040500 55.654423 93.888002
2025-11-30 10.877595 14.068478 18.573427 25.773053 37.841863 59.302100 107.112194
2025-12-07 10.318226 13.514818 18.121033 25.681482 38.830618 63.465710 123.163262
2025-12-14 9.791295 12.964819 17.619444 25.440450 39.498879 67.135375 139.763809
2025-12-21 9.590697 12.874936 17.801749 26.334782 42.356215 75.985800 175.317639
2025-12-28 9.160912 12.409638 17.356461 26.100381 43.015714 80.206649 200.101811
2026-01-04 8.802632 12.038045 17.042880 26.084016 44.152069 85.989756 235.512578
2026-01-11 8.532024 11.784910 16.901308 26.361873 45.950278 94.028333 288.427755
2026-01-18 8.201363 11.417397 16.542936 26.198860 46.777651 99.816139 339.343472
2026-01-25 7.880863 11.047795 16.154686 25.938345 47.346946 105.111297 396.382547
2026-02-01 7.621476 10.761854 15.888509 25.885786 48.389857 112.252415 478.885476
2026-02-08 7.358348 10.455785 15.566725 25.690002 49.060538 118.519911 571.586691
2026-02-15 7.110176 10.161801 15.247230 25.467612 49.632639 124.745600 684.407038
2026-02-22 6.879062 9.885009 14.941192 25.244054 50.169699 131.142928 826.043362
2026-03-01 6.683124 9.657748 14.710061 25.155467 51.051032 139.327748 1035.461159
2026-03-08 6.478997 9.407596 14.422969 24.921673 51.506951 146.102913 1277.061960
2026-03-15 6.437236 9.430228 14.635407 25.789588 55.205601 169.163894 2152.246462